For years we have followed and read all the expert mock drafts hoping to get an idea of what our favorite teams will do on draft day. Will they draft an offensive lineman or go with a skill position? Will they trade up or trade back? Is this the year we select our franchise quarterback? Year after year we have wondered how close the experts will be with their predictions. That day has finally come.
At AccuProSports we live, breathe, and sleep the NFL Draft. Every year, hundreds of mock drafts are created, but the question is: Who will be the most accurate? This question drove us to develop our unique formula and grading system. This system can analyze draft experts and see who has the best overall mock draft each year. Our formula is based on five different grading scales. We grade the experts on: number of correct picks, total draft error, average mock error, difficulty points, and team matching. So what does each scale mean?
Number of Correct Picks– Simply, how many correct selections the expert had.
Total Error– Total error refers to the total amount of difference between a mock pick and actual pick. For example, if a expert made a correct selection, there was 0 error. If the expert mocked a player to be selected 1st overall but fell to 5th overall, that is a error of 5. We calculate the entire first round error to give us the total error for each expert.
Average Mock Error– Average mock error takes the total error and averages it to each pick. This gives a window of error for each expert’s pick in the first round. The least amount of error the expert has, the smaller of a window the expert made. The higher the average gets, the bigger of a window the expert has. So if a expert had a average error of 5, this means each selection was within a 5 pick range (either higher or lower) to being correct.
Difficulty Points– Difficulty points are weighted to give more value to more difficult picks further into the first round. The degree of difficulty between correctly mocking the first overall pick as opposed to picks 20-32 are vastly different. That is why the deeper we get into the first round, more points are awarded for a correct selection.
Team Matching– Team matching is correctly mocking a specific player and team together. No matter if the team trades up or back, if they select the player the expert mocked, points will be awarded.
Along with grading each expert, we compile every expert’s mock draft. We update daily, making AccuProSports your one stop shop for the NFL Draft.